Friday, September 23, 2005

Has Houston dodged a bullet?

We all want to read deeply into the maps on television but the reality of hard cold numbers don't lie.

The strike probablitities for Port Arthur and Galveston are still the same:

PORT ARTHUR TX 36 1 X X 37
GALVESTON TX 37 X X X 37

A few of the weathermen have been trying to emphasize the difference between a wobble and a turn. Neil Frank, who was an old dog at this stuff already 10 years ago, says that hurricanes move along the path at a wobble all the time. If you continue to extrapolate the data (make a straight line out of the dots for all you non-math folks), the storm is still aimed mainly at Galveston.

I may not have a boring day after all.

More later!

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